Iranian/US Conflict: This is being called war. But it is also what systemic instability looks like.

There is a lot of commentary at the moment about what is unfolding between the United States and Iran. Much of it is framed as escalation or the potential for war.

Those labels are not wrong, but they do not explain what is actually driving what we are seeing.

To understand that, it is more useful to step back and look at the system as a whole.

In behaviour work, behaviour is not seen as something that happens in isolation. It is understood as something that comes out of the system around it. That system might be a person, a family, a service, or at a much larger scale, a geopolitical environment.

When a system is stable, behaviour is more predictable. When a system is under pressure, behaviour starts to change.

A systems-based framework: MERGA

MERGA (MindfulLink Ecological Risk and Governance Assessment) is a framework used to understand how behaviour emerges in complex systems.

It was developed for Positive Behaviour Support, where it is critical to understand not just what behaviour looks like, but what is driving it. It looks at how pressure, environment, coordination, and decision-making interact.

That same way of thinking can be applied beyond individual settings. It can also be used to make sense of what is happening in larger, more complex situations like this one.

MERGA has been applied to the dynamics between the United States and Iran over recent months to track how actions and narratives are interacting and what impact they are likely to have.

It does this by looking at five key layers.

Behavioural Instability

This layer looks at what can actually be observed—what people and systems are doing and saying.

In this case, it includes public statements, responses to incidents, and the behaviour of leaders and state actors.

Some of what is being seen raises questions about intent and motive, but it is important not to get pulled into the narrative around that. This layer is about looking at behaviour as data.

As pressure increases, responses become faster and more reactive. There is less time between events and responses, and less visible deliberation.

The impact of this is that things become harder to predict. For Australians watching this unfold, it shows up as a fast-moving news cycle, changing information, and a sense that events are escalating quickly without clear direction.

System Volatility

This layer looks at how the system responds to disruption.

In stable systems, disruption is absorbed. There are processes and checks in place that allow the system to settle and return to a more balanced state.

In volatile systems, disruption is amplified. One event leads quickly to another, and instead of settling, the system becomes more active and more reactive.

What is being seen at the moment is a pattern of action followed by rapid counter-action, creating a cycle rather than resolution.

For Australians, this shows up in how quickly situations change and how widely the effects are felt. Global markets react, fuel prices shift, and there is a broader sense of uncertainty about what might happen next.

Ecological Mismatch

Ecological mismatch happens when actions are taken in an environment they are not well suited to.

In this situation, there are multiple environments at play at the same time—military, political, regional, and international. Each of these operates differently and has different expectations.

A strategy that might work in one environment does not always work in another. For example, an action that makes sense from a military perspective may create problems at a political or international level.

When these environments are not aligned, actions can have unintended consequences. Instead of reducing pressure, they can shift it somewhere else or increase it.

The impact is felt across the system. Civilian populations experience disruption, other countries are drawn into responding, and expectations around how situations should be handled are challenged.

For Australians, this contributes to a sense of instability. It becomes harder to see how events fit together, and harder to predict how they might affect everyday life.

Implementation Capacity

This layer considers the system’s ability to carry out what it says it is going to do, in a consistent and coordinated way.

It is not just about resources. It is about whether actions match intent, whether different parts of the system are aligned, and whether responses are delivered clearly and consistently.

Under pressure, gaps begin to appear. Statements and actions do not always line up. Different actors respond in different ways. Timing becomes uneven, and coordination becomes more difficult.

This is not always because systems lack capability. It is often because the environment is moving quickly and multiple players are involved.

For Australians, this shows up as mixed messaging and uncertainty. Information changes quickly, and it becomes harder to understand what is actually happening and what it means.

It also shows up in flow-on effects. Global instability impacts fuel prices, supply chains, and cost of living. When systems are not coordinated, these impacts can be more unpredictable.

Over time, this reduces confidence and makes it harder for people, businesses, and governments to plan.

Governance Exposure

This layer looks at how decisions are made under pressure.

As pressure increases, decisions are often made more quickly and with less time for consultation. They may also change more frequently as new information comes in.

This creates variability. Decisions can appear inconsistent, and direction can shift.

The impact is increased uncertainty. For those within the system, it becomes harder to maintain a clear and consistent approach. For those outside it, it becomes harder to know what to expect.

For Australians, this contributes to a broader sense of instability. When decision-making appears to shift quickly, it affects confidence—not just in what is happening overseas, but in how it might affect economic conditions, security, and day-to-day life.

Why this matters

When this situation is viewed through MERGA, what might initially seem unpredictable starts to become more understandable. By tracking behaviours and narratives across the system, MERGA shows how pressure builds, shifts, and then lands.

It does not remain at the top.

Using a systems lens aligned with Urie Bronfenbrenner’s ecological model, pressure moves through layers—from global decision-making and geopolitical positioning, into regional systems, into national economies and policies, and then into communities, families, and ultimately the individual.

That is where the impact is felt.

Countries across the world that are not involved in this conflict are still impacted by a system under strain. It presents as:

• rising fuel and energy costs

• supply chain disruption

• shifting economic conditions and cost of living pressures

• increased uncertainty around safety, security, and stability

What begins as a strategic decision or action at a systems level is experienced as day-to-day pressure at an individual level.

MERGA is designed to track that movement. It shows how instability at outer system layers translates into real-world impact at the centre.

It also highlights an important point about governance and strategy.

In stable systems, there is typically a strong alignment between strategic planning, advisory input, and decision-making. Under pressure, or where governance structures are less consistently engaged, that alignment can weaken. Decisions may become more reactive, less coordinated, and less informed by established strategic processes.

The impact of this is increased volatility across the system, and a greater likelihood that pressure will move more quickly and more intensely through to the individual.

This is not random. It is what happens when systems are under sustained pressure—whether that pressure is created intentionally or emerges through interaction.

It is also important to recognise that systems do not experience new pressure in isolation.

In the case of Australia, the system was already under strain. Rising interest rates, increasing cost of living, housing pressure, and higher operating costs for businesses had already reduced the system’s capacity to absorb further disruption. Labour costs, regulatory settings, and supply chain constraints were already interacting in ways that were placing pressure across multiple layers of the economy.

When additional external pressure is introduced—such as instability affecting global fuel and energy markets—it does not sit alongside existing strain. It compounds it.

The result is a cumulative effect. Increases in fuel costs flow through to transport, food, and goods. Businesses pass on higher operating costs. Households experience this as further increases in day-to-day expenses.

From a MERGA perspective, this is what reduced system resilience looks like. A system that is already under pressure has less capacity to absorb disruption, so the impact moves more quickly and more directly to the individual.

This is also not unique to global events. The same pattern is seen every day in Positive Behaviour Support. When the system is under strain, the individual carries the impact.

If the focus remains only on behaviour, the response stays at the surface. When the system is understood, it becomes possible to change the conditions that are producing that behaviour—and reduce the impact on the person at the centre.

This systems-based approach underpins the way work is done at MindfulLink.

https://www.mindfullink.com.au